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H1 2026 market brief

Off plan still doing the heavy lifting.

AED 221.3B

H1 2026 residential sales

76%

Off plan share (June)

AED 2,050

Average price psf (Q1)

~120,000

Units handing over in 2026

Dubai residential closed H1 2026 at AED 221.3 billion in sales off plan accounted for roughly 76% of transactions in June and 75% of value in Q1. Average pricing hit AED 2,050 psf, the highest on record and up 42% since 2021. Knight Frank now forecasts price growth to moderate to 5 8% across 2026 as roughly 120,000 units come to handover.

Communities in focus

Palm Jebel Ali is dominating investor conversations twice the size of Palm Jumeirah, with early villa rows now delivering. Dubai Hills continues to compound as a lived in Emaar community. Dubai South is where the entry price appreciation is quietly stacking up. Business Bay holds for rental yield, and Emaar Beachfront's Beachgate and Bayview towers extend Dubai Harbour's waterfront pipeline.

Figures compiled from public H1 2026 releases (Dubai Land Department, Reidin, Knight Frank, Emirates NBD, Bayut/Dubizzle). Updated at each quarter end.

Latest report

8 July 2026

Off plan H1 2026: 76% market share and a record AED 2,050 psf

The half year data is in off plan drove 76% of June transactions and 75% of Q1 value. Average pricing set a new record while volumes remained tight to supply. What that means for pricing discipline in Q3.

24 June 2026

Palm Jebel Ali: the community every investor is asking about

Twice the size of Palm Jumeirah, backed by Nakheel, with first villa rows now handing over. A pragmatic look at pricing tiers, absorption pace, and which fronds are pricing rationally versus emotionally.

10 June 2026

The 2026 handover wave: 120,000 units priced in yet?

Roughly 120,000 units are scheduled to complete in Dubai in 2026. Knight Frank calls for growth to moderate to 5 8% versus 12 22% in 2024 25. Where the supply pressure lands hardest and where it doesn't.

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