The three metrics I check before recommending an off plan unit
Every off plan pitch comes with beautiful renders and a compelling story. Behind the marketing, three numbers tell you whether the unit will actually work as an investment. I don't recommend anything without them.
By Mathieu Poissonnet
Metric 1: Payment plan front loading
The first metric is payment plan front loading. If you're paying more than 60% before handover, you're funding the developer's construction against their timeline. That's fine if the developer has a track record of hitting delivery dates.
Ask for their last five projects and check the actual handover dates against the original announced ones.
Rule of thumb: - One year slip: normal - Two years: a warning - Three years: a stop
Metric 2: Floor plan efficiency
The second metric is floor plan efficiency, the ratio of usable interior area to total sold area.
In prime Dubai stock: - 85% or higher: excellent - 75 to 85%: average - Below 75%: a red flag
Corner units and top floor units tend to have worse ratios because of setback rules and mechanical spaces. Ask for the floor plan with both the total and usable areas marked. Reputable developers provide this; the ones who don't are the ones you should walk from.
Metric 3: Resale liquidity
The third metric is resale liquidity in the community. Look at the historic turnover in comparable units: same community, similar bed count, similar size.
If there are 200 units in the tower and only 4 have traded in the last 12 months, plan for a longer exit. That's not necessarily a bad investment, but you need to buy at a price that accounts for illiquidity.
When to buy, when to walk
When these three align, I recommend without hesitation. Priority allocation with a reasonable payment plan, 85%+ efficiency, and a proven resale market. That's the profile of the units I place with clients.
When they don't align, it's a hard no. Front loaded payment on a first time developer with tight floor plans in an untested community. It doesn't matter how good the renders are.
The most common mistake
The most common mistake I see buyers make is falling in love with the marketing. Every launch produces gorgeous imagery. Every developer's brochure claims record demand.
The three metrics tell you what will actually happen five years from now. And five years is what matters.
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